Quality informative content is at the heart of everything we do. That’s why mainstream media sources like Fox News, Sports Illustrated, the Wall Street Journal, USA Today and Bloomberg turn to the SportsInsider.com when they need solid information and analysis on sports betting matchups, odds making and the international gaming industry. In a lightweight bout on Saturday's main card, Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober meet at UFC 259 at the UFC's APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. And then the main card on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. Below, we analyze the UFC 259 odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
In a heavyweight bout on in Saturday’s main event, Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis meet at UFC on ESPN+ 49 – also known as UFC Vegas 19 and UFC Fight Night 185 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN+ 49 odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:27 a.m. ET.
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Records: Blaydes 14-2 Lewis 24-7
Blaydes (-450) steps into the octagon as an overwhelming favorite in the main event over Lewis. He has just a one-inch height and reach advantage, but the real advantage is in the stats.
Blaydes is ahead 3.55 to 2.64 in significant strikes landed per minute, and 53.44 to 50.84 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. The real difference is in his ability to get Lewis to the canvas as Blaydes has an overwhelming 6.98 to 0.54 takedown-average lead, and 55.66 to 26.92 takedown-accuracy percentage advantage.
While Blaydes will cost you four and a half times your potential return on the 2-way line, he is a much better play on the 5-way line. Back BLAYDES BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-160) for a better value.
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Four of the past six bouts for Lewis have finished inside the distance, while Blaydes has had stoppages in four of his past six, too. However, this one should go past the midway point. Lewis might be an overwhelming underdog, but he is no slouch. He’ll make Blaydes work for this victory. OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+105) is worth a look, but it won’t be much further than that. It’s a cheaper play than OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-225), although the latter is worth a small-unit play, too, especially if you can tie it into a parlay.
In the main event, I also like a three-round betting block of BLAYDES IN ROUND 2 (+400), BLAYDES IN ROUND 3 (+800) and BLAYDES IN ROUND 4 (+1300). Yes, you’ll lose two of those ends, but if he wins between Round 2-4, you’ll be well ahead.
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