Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje Prediction & Betting Odds - UFC Fight Night 158 Share Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (36-12-0) will fight Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje (20-2-0) in a lightweight contest in the main event on Saturday night at the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia. UFC Vancouver Odds, Betting guide: Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje September 12, 2019 By Jake Nichols Leave a Comment At UFC 242 last weekend, Khabib Nurmagomedov helped readers of WagerBop to a decent profit by submitting Dustin Poirier in the third round, exactly as we predicted. UFC Fight Night Vancouver: Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje Betting Odds and Preview. Leave Comments 0. A barn-burner is expected when two of the UFC’s most exciting fighters square off the main event of UFC Fight Night Vancouver on September 14, 2019, at the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada. Keep in mind, Donald Cerrone himself has been finished inside the first round three times since 2015 (dos Anjos, Till and Gaethje). However this fight turns out, I think we can all agree that seeing “The Notorious” Conor McGregor return to the UFC Octagon is nothing but a good thing for the sport. UFC on ESPN+ 16: Cowboy vs. Gaethje odds & betting lines. UFC/MMA odds comparison service. Compare the latest UFC/MMA fight odds and betting lines from the top online sportsbooks.
Matchup | Open | Closing range | Movement | Event | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UFC Fight Night May 8th 2021 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | n/a | UFC Fight Night | |||||
Diego Sanchez | n/a | May 8th 2021 | |||||
UFC on ESPN+ 36: Covington vs. Woodley Sep 19th 2020 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +110 | +110 | ... | +135 | +4.1%▲ | UFC on ESPN+ 36: Covington vs. Woodley | |
Niko Price | -130 | -170 | ... | -135 | Sep 19th 2020 | ||
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje May 9th 2020 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +120 | -135 | ... | +130 | -4.3%▼ | UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje | |
Anthony Pettis | -150 | -160 | ... | -110 | May 9th 2020 | ||
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy Jan 18th 2020 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +130 | +180 | ... | +275 | +32.7%▲ | UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy | |
Conor McGregor | -160 | -334 | ... | -245 | Jan 18th 2020 | ||
UFC on ESPN+ 16: Cowboy vs. Gaethje Sep 14th 2019 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +210 | +135 | ... | +169 | -24%▼ | UFC on ESPN+ 16: Cowboy vs. Gaethje | |
Justin Gaethje | -250 | -227 | ... | -170 | Sep 14th 2019 | ||
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes Jun 8th 2019 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +175 | +150 | ... | +193 | 0% | UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes | |
Tony Ferguson | -245 | -242 | ... | -190 | Jun 8th 2019 | ||
UFC on ESPN+ 9: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy May 4th 2019 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -105 | +100 | ... | +120 | +6.1%▲ | UFC on ESPN+ 9: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy | |
Al Iaquinta | -135 | -150 | ... | -125 | May 4th 2019 | ||
UFC on ESPN+ 1: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw Jan 19th 2019 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -110 | +135 | ... | +186 | +29%▲ | UFC on ESPN+ 1: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw | |
Alexander Hernandez | -130 | -225 | ... | -175 | Jan 19th 2019 | ||
UFC Fight Night 139: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez Nov 10th 2018 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -130 | +155 | ... | +178 | +34%▲ | UFC Fight Night 139: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez | |
Mike Perry | -110 | -220 | ... | -190 | Nov 10th 2018 | ||
UFC Fight Night 132: Cowboy vs. Edwards Jun 23rd 2018 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -155 | +155 | ... | +221 | +44.4%▲ | UFC Fight Night 132: Cowboy vs. Edwards | |
Leon Edwards | +115 | -260 | ... | -205 | Jun 23rd 2018 | ||
UFC Fight Night 126: Cerrone vs. Medeiros Feb 18th 2018 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -160 | -155 | ... | +110 | +14.5%▲ | UFC Fight Night 126: Cerrone vs. Medeiros | |
Yancy Medeiros | +120 | -130 | ... | +125 | Feb 18th 2018 | ||
UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till Oct 21st 2017 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -165 | -161 | ... | -140 | +3.4%▲ | UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till | |
Darren Till | +125 | +115 | ... | +133 | Oct 21st 2017 | ||
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 Jul 29th 2017 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +130 | +125 | ... | +140 | +1.3%▲ | UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 | |
Robbie Lawler | -160 | -175 | ... | -148 | Jul 29th 2017 | ||
UFC on FOX 23: Shevchenko vs. Pena Jan 28th 2017 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -180 | -200 | ... | -161 | +0.2%▲ | UFC on FOX 23: Shevchenko vs. Pena | |
Jorge Masvidal | +140 | +130 | ... | +165 | Jan 28th 2017 | ||
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis Dec 10th 2016 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -245 | -325 | ... | -255 | -4.5%▼ | UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis | |
Matt Brown | +175 | +205 | ... | +257 | Dec 10th 2016 | ||
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 Aug 20th 2016 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -180 | -165 | ... | -137 | +7.7%▲ | UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 | |
Rick Story | +140 | +115 | ... | +135 | Aug 20th 2016 | ||
UFC Fight Night 89: MacDonald vs. Thompson Jun 18th 2016 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -135 | -175 | ... | -150 | -8.6%▼ | UFC Fight Night 89: MacDonald vs. Thompson | |
Patrick Cote | +105 | +105 | ... | +153 | Jun 18th 2016 | ||
UFC Fight Night 83: Cowboy vs. Cowboy Feb 21st 2016 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -245 | -275 | ... | -240 | -1.4%▼ | UFC Fight Night 83: Cowboy vs. Cowboy | |
Alex Oliveira | +175 | +195 | ... | +236 | Feb 21st 2016 | ||
UFC on FOX 17: Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone Dec 19th 2015 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +205 | +125 | ... | +160 | -22%▼ | UFC on FOX 17: Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone | |
Rafael Dos Anjos | -285 | -195 | ... | -155 | Dec 19th 2015 | ||
UFC 187: Johnson vs. Cormier May 23rd 2015 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -305 | -800 | ... | -600 | -16.1%▼ | UFC 187: Johnson vs. Cormier | |
John Makdessi | +225 | +425 | ... | +530 | May 23rd 2015 | ||
UFC Fight Night 59: McGregor vs. Siver Jan 18th 2015 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +140 | +105 | ... | +125 | -9.6%▼ | UFC Fight Night 59: McGregor vs. Siver | |
Benson Henderson | -160 | -154 | ... | -135 | Jan 18th 2015 | ||
UFC 182: Jones vs. Cormier Jan 3rd 2015 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -150 | -135 | ... | -125 | +5.8%▲ | UFC 182: Jones vs. Cormier | |
Myles Jury | +110 | +100 | ... | +120 | Jan 3rd 2015 | ||
UFC 178: Johnson vs. Cariaso Sep 27th 2014 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -130 | -150 | ... | -133 | -2.9%▼ | UFC 178: Johnson vs. Cariaso | |
Eddie Alvarez | -110 | +102 | ... | +125 | Sep 27th 2014 | ||
UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs. Miller Jul 16th 2014 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -190 | -270 | ... | -235 | -9.3%▼ | UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs. Miller | |
Jim Miller | +150 | +190 | ... | +225 | Jul 16th 2014 | ||
UFC on FOX 11: Werdum vs. Browne Apr 19th 2014 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -140 | +110 | ... | +162 | +29.2%▲ | UFC on FOX 11: Werdum vs. Browne | |
Edson Barboza | +100 | -180 | ... | -152 | Apr 19th 2014 | ||
UFC on FOX 10: Henderson vs. Thomson Jan 25th 2014 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -250 | -200 | ... | -170 | +9.5%▲ | UFC on FOX 10: Henderson vs. Thomson | |
Adriano Martins | +175 | +150 | ... | +162 | Jan 25th 2014 | ||
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs. Hendricks Nov 16th 2013 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -180 | -140 | ... | -125 | +11.5%▲ | UFC 167: St-Pierre vs. Hendricks | |
Evan Dunham | +140 | +100 | ... | +115 | Nov 16th 2013 | ||
UFC Fight Night 27: Condit vs. Kampmann II Aug 28th 2013 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +135 | -139 | ... | +105 | -23.6%▼ | UFC Fight Night 27: Condit vs. Kampmann II | |
Rafael Dos Anjos | -165 | -120 | ... | +100 | Aug 28th 2013 | ||
UFC 160: Velasquez vs. Silva II May 25th 2013 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -275 | -300 | ... | -270 | -1%▼ | UFC 160: Velasquez vs. Silva II | |
K.J. Noons | +195 | +220 | ... | +248 | May 25th 2013 | ||
UFC on FOX 6: Johnson vs. Dodson Jan 26th 2013 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -140 | +120 | ... | +140 | +26.7%▲ | UFC on FOX 6: Johnson vs. Dodson | |
Anthony Pettis | +110 | -170 | ... | -150 | Jan 26th 2013 | ||
UFC 150: Henderson vs. Edgar II Aug 11th 2012 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -275 | -400 | ... | -314 | -6.1%▼ | UFC 150: Henderson vs. Edgar II | |
Melvin Guillard | +195 | +255 | ... | +305 | Aug 11th 2012 | ||
UFC on FUEL TV 3: Korean Zombie vs. Poirier May 15th 2012 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -260 | -294 | ... | -207 | +2.1%▲ | UFC on FUEL TV 3: Korean Zombie vs. Poirier | |
Jeremy Stephens | +200 | +175 | ... | +225 | May 15th 2012 | ||
UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem Dec 30th 2011 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -400 | -300 | ... | -260 | +7.7%▲ | UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem | |
Nate Diaz | +280 | +180 | ... | +256 | Dec 30th 2011 | ||
UFC 137: Penn vs. Diaz Oct 29th 2011 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +135 | -300 | ... | -235 | -71%▼ | UFC 137: Penn vs. Diaz | |
Dennis Siver | -175 | +185 | ... | +240 | Oct 29th 2011 | ||
UFC On Versus 5: Hardy vs. Lytle Aug 14th 2011 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -160 | -125 | ... | +110 | +16%▲ | UFC On Versus 5: Hardy vs. Lytle | |
Charles Oliveira | +120 | -130 | ... | -105 | Aug 14th 2011 | ||
UFC 131: Carwin vs. Dos Santos Jun 11th 2011 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -365 | -525 | ... | -389 | -4.2%▼ | UFC 131: Carwin vs. Dos Santos | |
Vagner Rocha | +285 | +300 | ... | +352 | Jun 11th 2011 | ||
UFC 126: Silva vs. Belfort Feb 5th 2011 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -215 | -357 | ... | -250 | -9.9%▼ | UFC 126: Silva vs. Belfort | |
Paul Kelly | +175 | +220 | ... | +260 | Feb 5th 2011 | ||
WEC 53 Dec 16th 2010 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -305 | -550 | ... | -375 | -8.5%▼ | WEC 53 | |
Chris Horodecki | +245 | +305 | ... | +350 | Dec 16th 2010 | ||
WEC 51: Aldo vs. Gamburyan Sep 30th 2010 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +165 | +115 | ... | +139 | -16.2%▼ | WEC 51: Aldo vs. Gamburyan | |
Jamie Varner | -205 | -182 | ... | -145 | Sep 30th 2010 | ||
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber Apr 24th 2010 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -105 | -145 | ... | -115 | -8.8%▼ | WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber | |
Benson Henderson | -125 | -120 | ... | +115 | Apr 24th 2010 | ||
WEC 45: Cerrone vs Ratcliff Dec 19th 2009 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -370 | -800 | ... | -400 | -5.7%▼ | WEC 45: Cerrone vs Ratcliff | |
Ed Ratcliff | +300 | +310 | ... | +500 | Dec 19th 2009 | ||
WEC 43: Cerrone vs Henderson Oct 10th 2009 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -365 | -500 | ... | -310 | 0% | WEC 43: Cerrone vs Henderson | |
Benson Henderson | +285 | +245 | ... | +300 | Oct 10th 2009 | ||
WEC 41: Brown vs Faber 2 Jun 7th 2009 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -500 | -650 | ... | -500 | -1.9%▼ | WEC 41: Brown vs Faber 2 | |
James Krause | +300 | +325 | ... | +450 | Jun 7th 2009 | ||
WEC 38: Varner vs Cerrone Jan 25th 2009 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | +135 | +130 | ... | +150 | +1.3%▲ | WEC 38: Varner vs Cerrone | |
Jamie Varner | -165 | -185 | ... | -155 | Jan 25th 2009 | ||
WEC 36: Faber vs Brown Nov 5th 2008 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -110 | -180 | ... | -145 | -18%▼ | WEC 36: Faber vs Brown | |
Rob McCullough | -120 | +115 | ... | +156 | Nov 5th 2008 | ||
WEC 34: Faber vs Pulver Jun 1st 2008 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | -275 | -300 | ... | -280 | -1.4%▼ | WEC 34: Faber vs Pulver | |
Danny Castillo | +215 | +220 | ... | +240 | Jun 1st 2008 | ||
WEC 30 Sep 5th 2007 | |||||||
Donald Cerrone | n/a | WEC 30 | |||||
Kenneth Alexander | n/a | Sep 5th 2007 |
A barn-burner is expected when two of the UFC’s most exciting fighters square off the main event of UFC Fight Night Vancouver on September 14, 2019, at the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada.
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone is one of the most popular fighters in UFC history. Cowboy holds the record for most wins inside the octagon with 22 and he is also the promotion’s record-holder for most finishes with 16. He also has 18 post-fight bonuses because of his fan-friendly fighting style. He fought for the UFC lightweight title once but lost to Rafael Dos Anjos in 2015.
The 36-year-old Cerrone has a record of 36-12-0-1 with 10 knockouts and 17 submission victories. He stands 6-1 and has a reach of 73 inches while fighting at the orthodox stance. After a failed attempt at welterweight, Cerrone returned to lightweight this year and has netted three straight Fight of the Night bonuses. Cowboy is coming off a 2nd round loss to Tony Ferguson at UFC 238.
Cowboy is averaging 4.35 significant strikes landed per minute at a 46% accuracy rate. He gets tagged with 4.18 significant strikes per minute and has a 54% striking defense. On the ground, he is equally effective with 1.22 takedowns landed per 15 minutes at a 36% completion rate. Cerrone’s takedown defense is 73% and he averages 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Cerrone
+190
Gaethje
-225
Odds were taken from Betonline.ag as of 8/09/19
Justin Gaethje entered the UFC with plenty of hype. The former World Series of Fighting lightweight champion arrived with a perfect record of 17-0 with 14 knockouts and a reputation of being one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC. He started his UFC career with a knockout win over Michael Johnson but he’s been just 2-2 since his UFC debut.
The 30-year-old Gaethje stands 5-11 with a reach of 71 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He has an MMA record of 20-2 with 17 knockouts and one submission. Gaethje is currently ranked 5th in the UFC lightweight division and is coming off back to back first-round knockout wins over James Vick and Edson Barboza.
The Highlight is an aggressive, come-forward fighter who averages 8.5 significant strikes landed per minute at a 54% accuracy. However, he also absorbs an insane 10.23 significant strikes per minute. He has never been taken down in the UFC and has an 80% takedown defense. He has also not attempted a takedown inside the octagon.
When the MMA betting lines were first posted last month, Gaethje opened as a -250 betting favorite against Cowboy who came back at +210. The lines have moved since then, but not much. Still, it’s really very interesting to find Gaethje as a sizeable favorite against the much more experienced and crafty Cerrone.
For one, Cerrone has the height and reach advantage on Gaethje and that size difference could matter for a come-forward fighter like Highlight. Cerrone is also a complete fighter who can win on his feet and on the ground. That could also be a factor against a stand-up brawler like Gaethje who hasn’t been taken down in his UFC career. Finally, Cerrone’s experience against the UFC’s marquee fighters could erase the age factor in this bout. While Cerrone is 36, he didn’t look his age in his last bout against Tony Ferguson who is arguably the best lightweight today.
Look, I like Justin Gaethje a lot. He truly deserves the nickname “Highlight” because every fight of his has been a highlight reel. That guy is excitement personified inside the octagon. However, in as much as I like Justin Gaethje, he’s a one-trick pony whose main defense is his solid chin and elite durability. Although he’s come up with spectacular knockout wins, those victories came after taking heavy punishment.
The problem with Justin Gaethje is that he likes to use himself as a bait in order to land his big punches. He doesn’t care if you hit him a lot because he can hit you back and hit you back harder. This isn’t just my observation, these are facts because according to Fightmetric.com, Gaethje absorbs a ridiculous 10.23 significant strikes per minute. That’s not going to work against a cerebral assassin like Cowboy Cerrone.
Cerrone is one of the smartest fighters in the UFC and one of the craftiest strikers in the business. He will take advantage of any opening and opportunity you are going to give him. Against Gaethje, the bank will be wide open for Cowboy Cerrone to cash in if he plays it correctly.
My only problem with Cerrone is that he’s been knocked out before and when he’s hurt, he doesn’t deal with adversity well. However, I was quite impressed with how he fought Tony Ferguson despite him losing that bout. I think Cerrone is past his prime and is no longer a contender at this point. Call him a gatekeeper but he can still go at it with the best.
I think Gaethje hits much harder and he can knock out Cerrone if he plays his cards well. But I think Cowboy is much smarter, much craftier and has more tools to win this match-up. I’m excited to see Cowboy at plus money at this point in time. He’s always an enticing underdog but in this one, I think he has a big chance to win this bout. People are calling this a fight of the year candidate already and I hope it lives up to its billing. These are fighters who love to please the crowd more than win the fight itself. I’m picking Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone to defeat Justin Gaethje at UFC Fight Night Vancouver. Prediction: Donald Cerrone